πŸ€ NBA Favorite Comebacks

How often does the pre-game favorite trail at Q1 / Half / Q3 β€” and still win?  Β·  light & simple



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πŸ“₯ 3-season data pull
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πŸ—“ League days β€“πŸ€ Games β€“πŸ’° Odds –

🎰 Strategy simulator β€” is this bet +EV?

Set your entry rule + the market price you can get. Win rate comes from the live historical data below (regular-season only).
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Qualifying games (hist)
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Historical win rate
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EV per $1 staked
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Hist. profit on stake Γ— N
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Edge vs market (pp)
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Verdict
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Games with a listed favorite
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Favorite wins outright
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Trailing at halftime
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…and still wins (comeback)

Where is the favorite at halftime?

Share of games leading / tied / trailing β†’ and how often each still wins.

Comeback rate by deficit

Favorite win % when trailing by X points at the checkpoint.

Comeback by how big a favorite? ⭐

Closing spread buckets (|spread|). β€œTrail” = behind at checkpoint Β· β€œComeback” = trailed yet won.

Favorite win rate by spread bucket

Bigger favorites win more β€” but do they come back more?

Comeback % by spread Γ— deficit

Each cell: favorite win % when trailing by that much at the checkpoint (n = trailing games). Green = comeback-prone, red = rarely.

Recent games

Favorite highlighted Β· deficit shown at selected checkpoint (negative = trailing).
DateMatchupFav (spread)Q1HalfQ3FinalResult